Model for climate change vulnerability indexes and its spatial representation in the Centre-Gulf Region of Mexico

Abstract

The Climate Change (CC) subject is still questionable, but the assessment of vulnerability to extreme events is critical for a strategic use of public resources. The most recent example is the impacts of “Ingrid” and “Manuel” cyclones, which would have been minimized with a previous evaluation of vulnerability in past years. This paper evaluated the vulnerability to CC in a transect from central Mexico to the Gulf, along the common direction followed by cyclones. Adapting the Malone and Brenkert (2008) model, social, economic, biophysics, and climatic variables were used to assess vulnerability. The most important sub-criteria for CC vulnerability are population size, poverty, production technology, natural resources degradation and economic capacity. Results were similar when variables were weighted according the opinion of experts. The adapted model showed to be a valuable planning tool that allows the planning of public resources according with vulnerability and minimize the extreme climatic events impacts.