Forecasting and standardization model for agricultural production, avocado case study for the Sierra de Zongolica

Abstract

The avocado is considered native to Mexico and Peru, but it is also cultivated in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. Mexico is the world leader in avocado production and exports, since it contributes 32% of the total value of exports, which in 2021 will present revenues of ~2,746 million dollars. Michoacan is the main producing state in Mexico with a production volume of 74.76%, followed by Jalisco with 10.48%, positioning these two states as the main ones for this productive activity (85.24%). The state of Veracruz, due to its climatic variety, has potential for avocado cultivation, however, it is not representative for the country in terms of production level (it contributes 0.29%), so it makes forecasts for production through a simple linear regression model for five years is essential to verify its growth and potential. This work also deals with the standardization of essential processes for the assurance of organic avocado production for the Sierra de Zongolica in a case study and a predictive model is developed to forecast the production of the fruit within the first five years from of the first harvest based on the empirical knowledge of the producer. The results showed a strong positive correlation between the variables years and production, which shows a possible increase in the production of organic avocado in the state of Veracruz. The contributions of tacit knowledge of the producers are highlighted, mainly in situations in which information is lacking under conditions and contexts that are scarcely explored.