Desastres naturales y desarrollo humano: Una revisión de la literatura
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5377/ribcc.v7i14.12798Palabras clave:
Desastres Naturales, Largo Plazo, Pobreza, Desempleo, Educación, SaludResumen
Si bien la literatura de desastres naturales ha evidenciado un amplio consenso sobre los efectos negativos que estos shocks ocasionan a corto plazo sobre el desarrollo individual, sus consecuencias de largo plazo aún son materia de debate. En este trabajo se brinda una revisión de la literatura sobre este tópico. Si bien los resultados confirman una amplia heterogeneidad en la literatura empírica (según el tipo de desastre, país o región de análisis y horizonte temporal considerado), la mayor parte de los trabajos considerados tiende a reportar hallazgos consistentes con la idea de persistencia en el largo plazo de los efectos negativos. Así, surge que la exposición a desastres tiende a incrementar persistentemente la probabilidad de ser pobre o estar desempleado, de tener un bajo logro educativo, bajos ingresos o un deteriorado estatus de salud. De los hallazgos de esta revisión surgen cuatro recomendaciones de política. Primero, cada grupo de desastres provoca efectos diferentes y esto debe ser considerado en la implementación de acciones de preparación y mitigación. Segundo, las embarazadas y niños en sus primeros meses de vida (especialmente en los primeros 1000 días) deben ser especialmente protegidos, dado que los efectos de largo plazo se concentran en este subgrupo. Tercero, debido a que una mejora en la infraestructura básica reduce el riesgo de desastre, las acciones de preparación y mitigación frente a desastres deben entenderse en forma complementaria a aquellas de reducción de la pobreza. Cuarto, la política pública debe incorporar explícitamente la dimensión de género.
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Barker, D. (2012). Developmental origins of chronic disease. Public Health, 126(3), 185-189.
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Belasen, A.; Polachek, R. (2008). How Hurricanes Affect Employment and Wages in Local Labor Markets. Working paper 3407, IZA. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.2.49
Boustan, L.; Kahn, M.; Rhode, P.; Yanguas, M. (2020). The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in US Counties: A Century of Data. Journal of Urban Economics, 118.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103257
Bustelo, M.; Arends-Kuenning, M.; Lucchetti, L. (2012). Persistent Impact of Natural Disasters on Child Nutrition and Schooling: Evidence from the 1999 Colombian Earthquake. Working paper 6354, IZA.
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.07.012
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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2548744
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https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05871-180427
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.04.008
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.004
Gignoux, J.; Menéndez, M.; Music, A. (2017). In the wrong place, at the wrong time: Long-run effects of income shocks on children's education and health outcomes. Working paper 25, ECINEQ.
Gluckman, P.; Hanson, M.; Low, F. (2011). The role of developmental plasticity and epigenetics in human health. Birth Defects Research Part C: Embryo Today: Reviews, 93(1), 12-18.
https://doi.org/10.1002/bdrc.20198
González, F.; Santos, M.; London, S. (2021a). Persistent Eects of Natural Disasters on Human Development: Quasi-Experimental Evidence for Argentina. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01064-7
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01064-7
González, F.; Santos, M.; London, S. (2021b). Multidimensional Poverty and Natural Disasters in Argentina (1970-2010). Journal of Human Development and Capabilities. https://doi.org/10.1080/19452829.2021.1910220
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González, F.; Dip, J.; London, S. (2021). Long-lasting Eects of Pandemics: The Case of the 1918 Infuenza Pandemic in Argentina. Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2021.100409
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Hanson, M.; Gluckman, P. (2014). Early Developmental Conditioning of Later Health and Disease: Physiology or Pathophysiology?. Physiological Reviews, 94(4), 1027-1076.
https://doi.org/10.1152/physrev.00029.2013
Hermida, P. (2013). The Long-Term Effect of Natural Disasters: Health and Education in Guatemala after the 1976 Earthquake. Trabajo presentado en la Reunión Anual 2013 de LACEA.
Hlodversdottir, H.; Petursdottir, G.; Carlsen, H.; Gislason, T.; Hauksdottir, A. (2016). Long-term health effects of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption: a prospective cohort study in 2010 and 2013. BMJ Open, 6.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011444
Hyland, M.; Russ, J. (2019). Water as destiny - The long-term impacts of drought in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 115, 30-45.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.002
Karbownik, K.; Wray, A. (2019). Long-run Consequences of Exposure to Natural Disasters. Journal of Labor Economics, 37(3), 949-1007.
https://doi.org/10.1086/702652
Karim, A. (2016). The household response to persistent natural disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh. Working paper 05, Victoria Business School.
King, S.; Dancause, K.; Turcotte-Tremblay, A.; Veru, F.; Laplante, D. (2012). Using Natural Disasters to Study the Effects of Prenatal Maternal Stress on Child Health and Development. Birth Defects Research Part C, 96, 273-288.
https://doi.org/10.1002/bdrc.21026
Kirchberger, M. (2017). Natural Disasters and Labor Markets. Journal of Development Economics, 125, 40-58.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.11.002
Maccini, S.; Yang, D. (2009). Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1006-1026.
https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1006
Moore, T.; Arefadib, N.; Deery, A.; West, S. (2017). The first thousand days: an evidence paper. Working paper, Centre for Community Child Health and Murdoch Children's Research Institute.
Mueller, V.; Quisumbing, A. (2009). Natural Disasters and their Labor Market Consequences: Evidence from the 1998 Flood in Bangladesh. Working paper. Disponible en: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228431194_Natural_Disasters_and_their_Labor_Market_Consequences_Evidence_from_the_1998_Flood_in_Bangladesh
Muller, V.; Osgood, D. (2007). Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households. Agricultural Economics, 40, 573-586.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00399.x
Noy, I.; du Pont IV, W. (2018). The Long-Term Consequences of Disasters: What Do We Know, and What We Still Don't. International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 12, 325-354.
https://doi.org/10.1561/101.00000104
Ogasawara, K. (2019). Persistence of Natural Disasters on Child Health: Evidence from the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923. Working paper. Disponible en: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08148
Onigbinde, L. (2018). The Impacts of Natural Disasters on Educational Attainment: Cross-Country Evidence from Macro Data. Tesis de Maestría, University of San Francisco.
Papanikolaou, V.; Adamis, D.; Kyriopoulos, J. (2012). Long term quality of life after a wildfire disaster in a rural part of Greece. Open Journal of Psychiatry, 2, 164-170. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojpsych.2012.22022
Paudel, J.; Ryu, H. (2018). Natural disasters and human capital: The case of Nepal's earthquake. World Development, 111, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.06.019
Pecha Garzón, C. (2017). The effects of natural disasters on the labour market: Do hurricanes increase informality?. Working paper 854, Inter-American Development Bank.
https://doi.org/10.18235/0000944
Peter, M.; Moscosa, J.; Morgan, M.; Katz, J.; Deandrade, K.; et al. (2014). Natural Disasters and Myocardial Infarction: The Six Years After Hurricane Katrina. Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 89(4), 472-477.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mayocp.2013.12.013
Phifer, J.; Kaniasty, K.; Norris, F. (1988). The Impact of Natural Disaster on the Health of Older Adults: A Multiwave Prospective Study. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 29(1), 65-78.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2137181
Rodríguez-Oreggia, E. (2013). Hurricanes and labor market outcomes: Evidence for Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 23, 351-359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.08.001
Rydberg, H.; Marrone, G.; Stromdahl, S.; von Schreeb, J. (2015). A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru. PLOS One, 10(6).
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0130889
Saint-Macary, C.; Zanuso, C. (2016). Build back better? Long-lasting impact of the 2010 Earthquake in Haiti. Working paper. Disponible en: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01388473/document
Shahabuddin, Q.; Ali, Z. (2006). Natural disasters, risks, vulnerability and persistence of poverty: an analysis of household level data. Working paper 15, Programme for Research on Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh. Disponible en: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a08c19ed915d3cfd00117a/wp15fulltext.pdf (Acceso en septiembre de 2019).
Silbert, M.; Useche, M. (2011). Repeated Natural Disasters and Poverty in Island Nations: A Decade of Evidence from Indonesia. Working paper, Warrington Collgue of Business. Disponible en: https://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/centers/purc/docs//papers/1202_Silbert_Repeated_Natural_Disasters.pdf
Sotomayor, O. (2013). Fetal and infant origins of diabetes and ill health: Evidence from Puerto Rico's 1928 and 1932 hurricanes. Economics & Human Biology, 11(3), 281-293.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2012.02.009
Valencia Amaya, M. (2013). Climate Shocks and Human Capital The Impact of Natural Disasters on Students' Performance in Standardized Tests. Tesis de Maestría en Economía, Universidad de los Andes.
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Anttila-Hughes, J.; Hsiang, S. (2013). Destruction, Disinvestment, and Death: Economic and Human Losses Following Environmental Disaster. Working paper series, Goldman School of Public Policy. Disponible en: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2220501
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2220501
Báez, J.; Lucchetti, L.; Genoni, M.; Salazar, M. (2015). Gone with the Storm Rainfall Shocks and Household Well-Being in Guatemala. Working paper 7177, Banco Mundial.
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7177
Báez, J.; Santos, I. (2007). Children's Vulnerability to Weather Shocks: A Natural Disaster as a Natural Experiment. Conference paper IZA.
Báez, J.; Santos, I. (2008). On Shaky Ground: The Effects of Earthquakes on Household Income and Poverty. RPP LAC-MDGs and Poverty-02/2008, RBLAC-UNDP, New York.
Banerjee, L. (2007). Effect of Flood on Agricultural Wages in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis. World Development, 35(11), 1989-2009.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.11.010
Barker, D. (1990). The fetal and infant origins of adult disease. British Medical Journal, 301, 1111.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.301.6761.1111
Barker, D. (2012). Developmental origins of chronic disease. Public Health, 126(3), 185-189.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2011.11.014
Belasen, A.; Polachek, R. (2008). How Hurricanes Affect Employment and Wages in Local Labor Markets. Working paper 3407, IZA. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.2.49
Boustan, L.; Kahn, M.; Rhode, P.; Yanguas, M. (2020). The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in US Counties: A Century of Data. Journal of Urban Economics, 118.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103257
Bustelo, M.; Arends-Kuenning, M.; Lucchetti, L. (2012). Persistent Impact of Natural Disasters on Child Nutrition and Schooling: Evidence from the 1999 Colombian Earthquake. Working paper 6354, IZA.
Caruso, G. (2017). The legacy of natural disasters: The intergenerational impact of 100 years of disasters in Latin America. Journal of Development Economics, 127, 209-233.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.03.007
Caruso, G.; Miller, S. (2015). Long run effects and intergenerational transmission of natural disasters: A case study on the 1970 Ancash Earthquake. Journal of Development Studies, 1117, 134-150.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.07.012
Deuchert, E.; Felbe, C. (2015). The tempest: Short- and long-term consequences of a natural disaster for children's development. European Economic Review, 80, 280-294.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.09.004
Dietert, R.; Etzel, R.; Chen, D.; Halonen, M.; Holladay, S.; Jarabek, A.; Landreth, K.; Peden, D.; Pinkerton, K.; Smialowicz, R.; Zoetis, T. (2000). Workshop to identify critical windows of exposure for children's health: immune and respiratory systems work group summary. Environmental health perspectives, 108(3), 483-490.
https://doi.org/10.2307/3454540
https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.00108s3483
du Pont, W.; Noy, I.; Okuyama, Y.; Sawada, Y. (2015). The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe. PLOS One, 10(10).
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138714
Eskander, S.; Barbier, E. (2014). Long-run impacts of the 1970-74 series of disasters in Bangladesh. Working paper. Disponible en: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2548744
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2548744
Garbero, A.; Muttarak, R. (2013). Impacts of the 2010 Droughts and Floods on Community Welfare in Rural Thailand: Differential Effects of Village Educational Attainment. Ecology & Society, 18(4), 1-18.
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05871-180427
García, J. (2020). The lasting effects of natural disasters on property crime: Evidence from the 2010 Chilean earthquake. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 175, 114-154.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.04.008
Gignoux, G.; Menéndez, M. (2016). Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia. Journal of Development Economics, 118, 26-44.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.004
Gignoux, J.; Menéndez, M.; Music, A. (2017). In the wrong place, at the wrong time: Long-run effects of income shocks on children's education and health outcomes. Working paper 25, ECINEQ.
Gluckman, P.; Hanson, M.; Low, F. (2011). The role of developmental plasticity and epigenetics in human health. Birth Defects Research Part C: Embryo Today: Reviews, 93(1), 12-18.
https://doi.org/10.1002/bdrc.20198
González, F.; Santos, M.; London, S. (2021a). Persistent Eects of Natural Disasters on Human Development: Quasi-Experimental Evidence for Argentina. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01064-7
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01064-7
González, F.; Santos, M.; London, S. (2021b). Multidimensional Poverty and Natural Disasters in Argentina (1970-2010). Journal of Human Development and Capabilities. https://doi.org/10.1080/19452829.2021.1910220
https://doi.org/10.1080/19452829.2021.1910220
González, F.; Dip, J.; London, S. (2021). Long-lasting Eects of Pandemics: The Case of the 1918 Infuenza Pandemic in Argentina. Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2021.100409
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2021.100409
Hanson, M.; Gluckman, P. (2014). Early Developmental Conditioning of Later Health and Disease: Physiology or Pathophysiology?. Physiological Reviews, 94(4), 1027-1076.
https://doi.org/10.1152/physrev.00029.2013
Hermida, P. (2013). The Long-Term Effect of Natural Disasters: Health and Education in Guatemala after the 1976 Earthquake. Trabajo presentado en la Reunión Anual 2013 de LACEA.
Hlodversdottir, H.; Petursdottir, G.; Carlsen, H.; Gislason, T.; Hauksdottir, A. (2016). Long-term health effects of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption: a prospective cohort study in 2010 and 2013. BMJ Open, 6.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011444
Hyland, M.; Russ, J. (2019). Water as destiny - The long-term impacts of drought in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 115, 30-45.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.002
Karbownik, K.; Wray, A. (2019). Long-run Consequences of Exposure to Natural Disasters. Journal of Labor Economics, 37(3), 949-1007.
https://doi.org/10.1086/702652
Karim, A. (2016). The household response to persistent natural disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh. Working paper 05, Victoria Business School.
King, S.; Dancause, K.; Turcotte-Tremblay, A.; Veru, F.; Laplante, D. (2012). Using Natural Disasters to Study the Effects of Prenatal Maternal Stress on Child Health and Development. Birth Defects Research Part C, 96, 273-288.
https://doi.org/10.1002/bdrc.21026
Kirchberger, M. (2017). Natural Disasters and Labor Markets. Journal of Development Economics, 125, 40-58.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.11.002
Maccini, S.; Yang, D. (2009). Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1006-1026.
https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1006
Moore, T.; Arefadib, N.; Deery, A.; West, S. (2017). The first thousand days: an evidence paper. Working paper, Centre for Community Child Health and Murdoch Children's Research Institute.
Mueller, V.; Quisumbing, A. (2009). Natural Disasters and their Labor Market Consequences: Evidence from the 1998 Flood in Bangladesh. Working paper. Disponible en: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228431194_Natural_Disasters_and_their_Labor_Market_Consequences_Evidence_from_the_1998_Flood_in_Bangladesh
Muller, V.; Osgood, D. (2007). Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households. Agricultural Economics, 40, 573-586.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00399.x
Noy, I.; du Pont IV, W. (2018). The Long-Term Consequences of Disasters: What Do We Know, and What We Still Don't. International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 12, 325-354.
https://doi.org/10.1561/101.00000104
Ogasawara, K. (2019). Persistence of Natural Disasters on Child Health: Evidence from the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923. Working paper. Disponible en: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08148
Onigbinde, L. (2018). The Impacts of Natural Disasters on Educational Attainment: Cross-Country Evidence from Macro Data. Tesis de Maestría, University of San Francisco.
Papanikolaou, V.; Adamis, D.; Kyriopoulos, J. (2012). Long term quality of life after a wildfire disaster in a rural part of Greece. Open Journal of Psychiatry, 2, 164-170. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojpsych.2012.22022
Paudel, J.; Ryu, H. (2018). Natural disasters and human capital: The case of Nepal's earthquake. World Development, 111, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.06.019
Pecha Garzón, C. (2017). The effects of natural disasters on the labour market: Do hurricanes increase informality?. Working paper 854, Inter-American Development Bank.
https://doi.org/10.18235/0000944
Peter, M.; Moscosa, J.; Morgan, M.; Katz, J.; Deandrade, K.; et al. (2014). Natural Disasters and Myocardial Infarction: The Six Years After Hurricane Katrina. Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 89(4), 472-477.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mayocp.2013.12.013
Phifer, J.; Kaniasty, K.; Norris, F. (1988). The Impact of Natural Disaster on the Health of Older Adults: A Multiwave Prospective Study. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 29(1), 65-78.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2137181
Rodríguez-Oreggia, E. (2013). Hurricanes and labor market outcomes: Evidence for Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 23, 351-359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.08.001
Rydberg, H.; Marrone, G.; Stromdahl, S.; von Schreeb, J. (2015). A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru. PLOS One, 10(6).
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0130889
Saint-Macary, C.; Zanuso, C. (2016). Build back better? Long-lasting impact of the 2010 Earthquake in Haiti. Working paper. Disponible en: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01388473/document
Shahabuddin, Q.; Ali, Z. (2006). Natural disasters, risks, vulnerability and persistence of poverty: an analysis of household level data. Working paper 15, Programme for Research on Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh. Disponible en: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a08c19ed915d3cfd00117a/wp15fulltext.pdf (Acceso en septiembre de 2019).
Silbert, M.; Useche, M. (2011). Repeated Natural Disasters and Poverty in Island Nations: A Decade of Evidence from Indonesia. Working paper, Warrington Collgue of Business. Disponible en: https://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/centers/purc/docs//papers/1202_Silbert_Repeated_Natural_Disasters.pdf
Sotomayor, O. (2013). Fetal and infant origins of diabetes and ill health: Evidence from Puerto Rico's 1928 and 1932 hurricanes. Economics & Human Biology, 11(3), 281-293.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2012.02.009
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Publicado
2021-11-15
Cómo citar
González, F. A. I. (2021). Desastres naturales y desarrollo humano: Una revisión de la literatura. Rev. Iberoam. Bioecon. Cambio Clim., 7(14), 1666–1675. https://doi.org/10.5377/ribcc.v7i14.12798
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