Climate trends and territorial evidence of increasing wildfire risk in Guatemala (2001 - 2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5377/ribcc.v11iNúm.%2022.22981Keywords:
Fire management, remote sensing, hydroclimatic variability, climate changeAbstract
Background: Guatemala experiences a high recurrence of forest fires, intensified by rising temperatures, precipitation variability, and anthropogenic pressure. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate trends and territorial evidence of forest fires in Guatemala. Methodology: A quantitative, longitudinal study was conducted, integrating climate data (1970–2024) from CHIRPS precipitation, temperature (INSIVUMEH and ERA5), and official forest fire records (CONRED–INAB). Trend analysis, climate anomaly analysis, Pearson correlations, and spatial analysis using GIS were applied. The ENSO index was incorporated to assess its interannual influence on fire occurrence. Results: The results show a temperature increase (>0.9 °C since 1970) and trends of precipitation variability, with recurring deficits during El Niño years. The years 2001 and 2024 show a higher incidence of fires, coinciding with negative precipitation anomalies and above-average temperatures. A positive correlation was observed between temperature and fires (r ≈ 0.6–0.7), and a negative correlation with precipitation (r ≈ −0.5), demonstrating strong climatic control over fire recurrence. Forest fires in Guatemala result from an interaction between climate change, land degradation, and human activity. Conclusion: The results verify and confirm that climate variation acts as a risk amplifier, thus requiring comprehensive fire management based on climate monitoring, land-use planning, and post-fire adaptation strategies to reduce environmental, social, and aquifer vulnerability.
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