Capacidad predictiva del modelo altman z-score en empresas declaradas en reorganización empresarial

Daniel Isaac-Roque; Andrés Caicedo-Carrero; Arley Nicolas Muñoz-Álvarez

doi:10.5377/aes.v4i1.16451

Authors

Daniel Isaac-Roque Konrad Lorenz University Foundation, Business School, Colombia. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7536-025X
Andrés Caicedo-Carrero Ibero-American University Corporation, Faculty of Business Sciences, Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7749-684X
Arley Nicolas Muñoz-Álvarez Ibero-American University Corporation, Faculty of Business Sciences, Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1167-7626

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5377/aes.v4i1.16451

Keywords:

accuracy, financial insolvency, business failure, measurement

Abstract

The measurement of financial insolvency has evolved over the last 60 years from a subjective approach to the creation of sophisticated techniques (classical models and alternative models). Within this group of models, the Altman Z-score model stands out as a financial insolvency prediction tool that has been the subject of many investigations in different economic sectors. Although there are studies that validate the accuracy of the Z-score model, there is no theoretical consensus on the predictive capacity of the Altman Z-score model and the state of financial insolvency declared under Law 1116 of 2006. For this reason, the objective of this study is to measure the level of predictability of the Altman Z-score in Colombian companies declared in corporate reorganization. To achieve this objective, the study is developed under a descriptive quantitative methodological approach. The results of the model measurements show that, on average, the companies are in the safe zone, indicating a low probability of insolvency. Therefore, it is contradictory that these companies were under corporate reorganization in the year 2021. Based on the research results, it can be concluded that although the predictability level of the model is only 33%, this does not mean that the model is an ineffective financial tool for calculating the probability of bankruptcy for companies in Colombia.

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