Melvin José González Mora; Francisco Javier Trivez Bielsa; Angel M Reyes Terrón

doi:10.5377/universitas.v3i2.1666

Authors

M.J. González-Mora National Autonomous University of Nicaragua, León. Nicaragua https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8595-6284
F.J.Trivez-Bielsa University of Zaragoza https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0979-1067
A.M. Reyes-Terrón National Autonomous University of Nicaragua, León. Nicaragua https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5273-6816

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5377/universitas.v3i2.1666

Keywords:

Contextual analysis, signal extraction, ARIMA models

Abstract

The objective of this article is to analyze the current situation and the short- and medium-term prospects of the export-oriented maquiladora industry in the State of Mexico. The aim is to conduct a quantitative economic conjunctural analysis by appropriately combining the necessary elements: an empirical base (relevant statistical information in the form of monthly time series of the value added from export services provided by maquiladora operations — VAECSM — in the State of Mexico) and quantitative methods (a set of statistical-econometric techniques). To this end, a methodological proposal is presented based on univariate ARIMA modeling of time series, complemented by outlier analysis, calendar effects, and signal extraction from the series using reduced-form model procedures. The trend-cycle component is identified as the appropriate signal to analyze the underlying evolution of the series. From this component, and through the concepts of underlying growth and inertia, the main conclusions can be drawn regarding the conjunctural situation of the maquiladora sector in the State of Mexico, which are also detailed at the regional level.

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Author Biographies

M.J. González-Mora, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua, León. Nicaragua

Researcher at the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences, Department of Economics.

F.J.Trivez-Bielsa, University of Zaragoza

Researcher at the Faculty of Economic Sciences Zaragoza, Spain.

A.M. Reyes-Terrón, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua, León. Nicaragua

Council for Research and Evaluation of Social Policy of the State of Mexico.

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